13 Killer NFL Team Stats
A baker's dozen of useful stats for spread handicapping.
When it comes to handicapping the NFL versus the point spread, there are a number of stats that I have found to be extremely effective in revealing profitable trends versus the line. The top 13 of these are listed below.
ROF, RDE, POF, PDE (Rushing and Passing offense/defense ratings)
Roughly 65-70% of the trends that I track each season involve at least one, if not two, of these powerful ratings which calculate team skill levels using the analysis of ball movement patterns combined with other factors, such as: the quality of opponents faced and the individual situations that surrounded each applicable play (i.e., field position, time on clock, current score, etc.). Non-plays such as kneel downs, aborted snaps and spiked balls are not included in rating calculations.
Ratings typically fall into the range of -3 to +3 and regardless of whether or not they apply to a team's offense or defense: a value above 0 always indicates a better-than-average skill level in the applicable category while a value below 0 indicates the opposite.
Beyond these overall 'power' ratings, I also analyze teams in dozens of other situations, including: how they do on 1st, 2nd, or 3rd/4th down; in the Red Zone; when the score is close; when passing to Tight Ends and Running Backs — the list goes on and on.
TMI (Team Momentum Indicator)
TMI's are a specialized rating that I have been using since 1995 and were the sole basis for my handicapping picks ATS from 1995-1999.
TMI's are similar to traditional 'Power Ratings' in the sense that they provide an assessment of team strength on both sides of the ball; however, there are a few important differences, the largest being, they focus predominantly on statistics from recent games and not the entire season. Points scored and allowed along with Yards-per-Pass and Points-per-Pass stats, both on offense and defense, are factored into TMI as well as a number of other variables.
Teams that have exhibited a balanced attack in recent games combined with a strong defense versus both the pass and run — which has translated into an appropriate point differential — will have a high TMI.
Teams that have fallen behind often in recent contests and have had to rely on a higher percentage of passing plays in order to catch-up, or have been taken advantage of defensively via long passing/rushing plays, will usually have a TMI < 0.
TMI's are a powerful tool when used in direct conjunction with the point spread and they are an important player in many of my more successful situational trends. This stat is exclusive to Armchair Analysis.com!
INTD, FUMD (INT and Fumble differential)
Did you know that: in over 75% of games played since 1994, the team with a higher turnover differential (INTF + FUMF - INTA - FUMA) is the same team that ended up covering the spread?
Turnovers, of course, are highly unpredictable and stats detailing recent takeaways and giveaways have little handicapping value for those of us trying to predict what may be in store for a team in an upcoming game.
The effect that turnovers can have on public perceptions of true team strength is something that is predictable; however, and sharper bettors know that interception and fumble 'differential' statistics are a good tool for revealing both undervalued and overvalued teams versus the point spread.
When I talk about INTD and FUMD, I am usually referencing a teams performance season-to-date, but, I do also look at these stats from a teams most recent game as well.
Obviously, all turnovers are not created equal and this is why it is important to categorize interceptions and fumbles separately.
LS WP (Last Seasons Winning Percentage)
With-out question, point spreads are based as much on what a team has done in the distant past, as they are on more recent performances, and nothing quantifies this better than a teams winning percentage from the last season.
Amateur bettors have a hard time letting go of pre-conceived notions of team strength based on results from past seasons, and I have a number of effective trends that exploit this fact.
O/U (Over/Under)
Interestingly enough, I have found that a teams season average for O/U's and the O/U from their most recent game, are much more useful in handicapping a current line than the same 2 measurements of past point spreads.
In addition to past Over/Unders, current matchups between two defensive minded teams (i.e., where the O/U is <= 37 points) offer up many profitable trends that would not be present if say, the O/U was 43 or 44.
Because of the wide range of uses for the Over/Under, you will find them included in some shape or form in quite a few of my situational trends.
CW & CL (Clutch Wins and Losses)
This is more of a 'situation' than a statistic, but, teams coming off a 'Clutch win' or 'Clutch loss' offer many opportunities for profit when other key factors are present.
A 'Clutch Win' can be defined as a situation where: a team tallies the final score of a game, in either the 4th quarter or overtime, moving them from a tied or losing position, into a winning one.
The team that loses in this situation would be assigned a 'Clutch' loss.
Many stats from a teams most recent game are powerful predictors of future spread results, but these 2 rank up near the top.
TOP (Time of Possession)
While on the topic of useful stats from a teams previous game, it would be negligent of me to not mention Time of Possession in the same breath as Clutch wins and losses.
Stats such as total yards and time of possession are often a better indication of which team played better than the other simply because of the impact that turnovers, long kick-off/punt returns, and other game-breaking factors can have on the final score of any given game.
While I predominantly look at a teams TOPF from their most recent game, season averages for TOPF also have their place in a few of my situational trends.
KRY (Kick-off Return Yardage)
Some might be surprised to see Kick-off Return Yardage make this list, but yes, the average distance that a team returns Kick-offs for is a key stat that has proven to be very predictive of future point-spread success, when combined with other factors.
Whether a team covers the spread or not really comes down to the battle of field position and season KRY average is an excellent barometer of special teams skill in one of the more underrated, yet important plays in football.
To see all of these stats in action, be sure to download the trial version of STAT 2010.
