Monday May 11th, 2009
Please be advised that I am currently in the process of finishing off my handicapping software package (STAT 1.0) and no new articles will be posted or updated until July, when STAT and it's user documentation will be finished.
If you think that some the situations detailed on this page are interesting: Get ready, 'cause starting in the summer, you'll be able to create your very own!
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NFL Situational Handicapping Articles
Free pro-football trends and spread-betting strategies that win.
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Be prepared to leave behind all the pre-conceived notions and past experiences you may have of handicapping the National Football League using trends and get ready to open your mind to some fresh new ideas in this area.
Despite much belief to the contrary, handicapping the NFL Vegas line using trend analysis of past data can provide bettors with significant future profits over the long term, so long as the right statistics and situations are taken into consideration.
The articles below will provide you with a small sampling of the 125+ winning NFL Situations offered to my subscribers on a weekly basis. Some of them are simple enough for anyone with a newspaper sports section or Internet access to take advantage of (no subscription necessary!) while others (Situation Spotlight articles) delve into the logic and stats behind some of my more involved trends.
Ultimately, each one of them has found a way to beat the line in it's own particular way, but, the majority can be said to have the same recipe for success: Sound logic and structure built on innovative custom stats you won't find anywhere else.
Those of you that are new to the world of NFL trend analysis may want to read the following article which provides a brief introduction to this style of handicapping and both the pros and cons involved with it's usage.
NFL Technical/Situational Analysis in a Nutshell. (09/17/07)
Best Regards,
Dennis
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| Recent articles: |
| August 28th, 2008 |
| Simple Systems - #21 & #33: More Early-Season Betting Strategies |
| August 4th, 2008 |
| Simple Systems - #112: Favourites and Cold Weather Conditions |
| July 6th, 2008 |
| Situation Spotlight - #109: Offensive Holding Penalties (OHP) |
| June 4th, 2008 |
| Situation Spotlight - #2: Teams with an above-average Late/Close % (LC%F) |
| May 19th, 2008 |
| Simple Systems - #18: Early-season Match-ups and Pythagorean Win% |
| April 25th, 2008 |
| Situation Spotlight - #97: Rush Offense Rating (ROF) mis-matches |
| April 17th, 2008 |
| Simple Systems - #40: Favourites of >= 14 Pts coming off a big win ATS |
| April 2nd, 2008 |
| Situation Spotlight - #43: Teams with a high INT% on Defense |
| March 21st, 2008 |
| Situation Spotlight - #107: Rushing and Passing ratings by Down |
| March 12th, 2008 |
| Simple Systems - #84: Teams coming off a bye week |
| February 29th, 2008 |
| Situation Spotlight - #76: Teams with a Big Pass Yardage % For (BPY%F) > 50% |
| February 22nd, 2008 |
| Situation Spotlight - #89: Teams with a Straight-up Winning % (SU WP) >= .600 |
| February 15th, 2008 |
| Simple Systems - #65 & #90: SOV and Revenge in the Playoffs |
| February 7th, 2008 |
| Situation Spotlight - #6: Teams in an Away Sandwich (AS) |
| January 30th, 2008 |
| 13 Killer NFL Team Stats: A baker's dozen of useful stats for spread handicapping |
| November 9th, 2007 |
| Situation Spotlight - #51: Teams coming off a Clutch Win (CW) |
| September 7th, 2007 |
| Situation Spotlight - #22: Play Book Execution Penalties (PBEP) |
| August 14th, 2007 |
| Simple Systems - #49: The Super-Bowl Effect |
| August 6th, 2007 |
| Situation Spotlight - #46: Pass Defense Ratings |
| August 1st, 2007 |
| Simple Systems - #32: Winless Teams |
| July 27th, 2007 |
Situation Spotlight - #25: Red Zone Conversion %
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