NFL Trend Analysis Done Right
Explore the stats and situations that really do beat the spread.
Be prepared to leave behind all the pre-conceived notions and past experiences you may have of handicapping the National Football League using trends and get ready to open your mind to some fresh new ideas in the realm of sports 'technical analysis'.
Despite much belief to the contrary, handicapping the NFL Vegas line using trend analysis of past data can provide bettors with significant profits over the long term, so long as the right statistics and situations are taken into consideration.
And that's essentially the problem with most other services and handicapping software programs these days: they're still stuck in the 90's, using nothing more than basic NFL box scores as a basis for their predictions and construction of power ratings.
The STAT 2010 handicapping program strives to break this cycle of statistical futility by looking at the NFL game from new perspectives, armed with custom team stats and ratings that think outside the box....score. For a small taste of them, please read on.
If you happen to just be looking for quick access to solid NFL picks then Click here
| NFL Betting Trend #125 | |
| Primary Condition: | Teams with an average Defensive Line Weight (WGT DL) that is > 310 lbs. |
| ATS Since 2008: | 60-25 |
| ATS in 2008: | 29-10 |
| ATS in 2009: | 31-15 |
| 2010 Projection: | 56.2% ATS |
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Back in the summer of 2008, I started to lay the groundwork for an expanded NFL game database that would include a multitude of player data, ultimately allowing me to start looking at purely 'fundamental' trends based on things such as: the physical stature of starting players; years of experience; speed and strength ratings — just to name a few variables. That was 2 years ago and with a couple of seasons of data to now look at, some intersting trends have begun to emerge. One of them looks at teams with a bigger-than-average starting defensive line — an average weight of at least 310 lbs to be exact. When this 'oversized' D-line meets up with an experienced group of offensive linemen on the opposing side (an average of least 5 years experience across the line), size trumps experience, in a 'big' way. It's still early days for this sort of player matchup analysis, but, trends such as this one (and the next one, #126) certainly bear watching in the coming season and beyond. |
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| NFL Betting Trend #126 | |
| Primary Condition: | Team has a Center with a BMI (Body Mass Index) at least 2 points higher than the opposing LDT. |
| ATS Since 2008: | 43-13 |
| ATS in 2008: | 24-7 |
| ATS in 2009: | 19-6 |
| 2010 Projection: | 55.8% ATS |
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Exploring fundamental matchups on a 'unit-by-unit' basis, such as with Trend #125, is all well and good; however, the game of Pro Football is really all about the individual battles that occur on the field of play and one such example involves Centers vs Left Defensive Tackles and more specifically: how they matchup in terms of BMI (Body Mass Index). When a team's Center happens to have a BMI that is at least 2 points higher. And, a strength rating of at least 8.8 (8.7 is the average at this position). The team in question has achieved an impressive 43-13 ATS record over the past 2 seasons — more evidence that controlling the line of scrimmage with size and strength is key to both winning, and covering the spread. As with Trend #125 — it's still early days. But, thanks to the new 'Field View' option in STAT 2010, trends at the 'micro-level' of the game can now be easily explored and more exciting results like this one are sure to crop up over the next few seasons. |
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| NFL Betting Trend #64 | |
| Primary Condition: | Team has had a much higher percentage of Touchdowns via Turnovers (TDT%) For than Against. |
| ATS Since 2000: | 75-149 |
| ATS in 2008: | 7-13 |
| ATS in 2009: | 10-23 |
| 2010 Projection: | 57.8% ATS |
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Teams that have been lucky enough to score a lot of defensive points due to their opponent's turnovers (i.e., INT and Fumble recoveries for TD's) are actually a lousy bet in the long-run ATS, especially if the % of points scored off turnovers (TDT%F) eclipses the percentage of points they have surrendered themselves via turnovers (TDT%A) by at least 7.5 percentage points. Factor in the condition that this team also has a Big Rush Yardage % Against (BRY%A) at least 7.5 percentage points higher than their Big Rush Yardage % For (BRY%F) and smart money goes on their opponent, regardless of the point spread involved. |
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| NFL Betting Trend #123 | |
| Primary Condition: | Winning teams (SU Win % > 0.550) that just faced back-to-back losing opponents. |
| ATS Since 1994: | 123-50 |
| ATS in 2008: | 5-0 |
| ATS in 2009: | 14-2 |
| 2010 Projection: | 58.0% ATS |
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I've never been big on situations that are built mostly on 'scheduling factors' — they are fairly easy to pick up on, even by novice bettors, and they are prone to having a short life-span as a result. It's hard to ignore a situation that is 19-2 ATS over the past 2 seasons; however, and trends that play strongly on favourites are always of interest. In this case, the focus is on teams with a SU Winning % of at least 0.550 that are coming off back-to-back opponent's with a SU Winning % < 0.500 Teams in this situation have been an incredibly profitable 323-236 ATS since 1994. Throw in the secondary stipulation that the team in question has a higher Team Momentum Indicator than their current opponent, and you've got a trend that is poised to produce 58%+ winners versus the number in 2010. |
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| NFL Betting Trend #23 | |
| Primary Condition: | Offensive Holding Penalties Against (OHPA) > Opp's. |
| ATS Since 2000: | 111-221 |
| ATS in 2008: | 11-24 |
| ATS in 2009: | 9-18 |
| 2010 Projection: | 57.3% ATS |
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This situation has been a huge one over the past 10 years, averaging about 35 plays per year in that time. It essentially looks at teams who have a higher Offensive Holding Penalty Against average (OHPA) than their current opponent between Week 4 and 17. This trend becomes truly dominant if this opponent also happens to have a Linebacker Sack % For (LBS%F) of at least 35%, which is well above the league average of 25%. |
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| NFL Betting Trend #78 | |
| Primary Condition: | Rushing First Down % For (RFD%F) > 35%. |
| ATS Since 2000: | 68-23 |
| ATS in 2008: | 6-0 |
| ATS in 2009: | 8-5 |
| 2010 Projection: | 56.6% ATS |
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Teams that achieve a better-than-average percentage of their first downs via the run have always been a spread-winner historically. Trend #78 takes advantage of this fact and looks at teams with an RFD%F of at least 35% (32-33% is the league average) that also have a Successful Rushing Play % For (SRP%F) at least 15% higher than their current opponent. These 2 factors add up to a powerful trend that is on track to win big yet again in 2010. |
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| NFL Betting Trend #17 | |
| Primary Condition: | Team has a Gross Punt Yardage (GPYF) > 44. |
| ATS Since 1994: | 99-218 |
| ATS in 2008: | 8-24 |
| ATS in 2009: | 20-27 |
| 2010 Projection: | 58.2% ATS |
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This powerful trend is probably worth the price of a subscription by itself. It's been a steady winner (as a play-against situation of course) since 1994 and produced yet again in 2009, albeit at a slightly lower rate than in the past. It's predominantly built on 3 different conditions and when they are all present, it's meant an almost certain spread-loss for the team involved. In order to qualify, a team must have a Gross Punt Yardage (GPYF) of > 44 yards; average at least 5 more Penalty Yards per Game For (PEYF) than against (PEYA). And, must also not give up less than 6.5 yards per Punt Return (PRYA). This trend succeeds largely because it focuses on a number of important team stats that are entirely overlooked by both the linesmakers and the betting public, until now. |
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| NFL Betting Trend #106 | |
| Primary Condition: | Team is coming off a bye week. |
| ATS Since 2000: | 30-7 |
| ATS in 2008: | 4-0 |
| ATS in 2009: | 2-2 |
| 2010 Projection: | 56.0% ATS |
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Ever since the bye-week was introduced into the NFL schedule way back in the early 90's, bettors have been faced with question of whether or not an edge is to be had when teams return from the 2-week layoff. When the right stats are considered, the answer is a resounding yes and Trend #106 is a good example. Its logic is fairly simple: teams that precede their bye-week with a game in which their Total Successful Plays For (TSPF) eclipsed their Total Successful Plays Against (TSPA) by at least 15, are an astounding 30-7 ATS in their first game back. With only 1 losing year in the past decade, it's a trend that is poised to produce again in 2010. |
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| NFL Betting Trend #14 | |
| Primary Condition: | Current Over/Under of >= 45 points. |
| ATS Since 1994: | 37-2 |
| ATS in 2008: | 4-0 |
| ATS in 2009: | 3-0 |
| 2010 Projection: | 57.4% ATS |
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Here's a nifty little trend that looks at games with an Over/Under of at least 45 points that feature a team with a Pass Offense Rating (POF) that is considerably improved over their POF from last season — at least 1.5 points better to be exact. When the teams POF also happens to be at least 1.5 points higher than their current opponent's POF. And, this opponent has a below average OFFENSE rating (POF + ROF) over their last 3 games, you end up with a situation that has been a rock-solid winner 16 years running. |
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| NFL Betting Trend #24 | |
| Primary Condition: | Team Interception Differential (INTD) < -1 in L3. |
| ATS Since 1994: | 119-45 |
| ATS in 2008: | 8-2 |
| ATS in 2009: | 10-7 |
| 2010 Projection: | 55.6% ATS |
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Teams that have a poor Interception Differential (INTD) over their last 3 games are actually pretty good versus the number since 1994: 433-396 ATS to be exact. Things really become profitable when they also happen to be facing a team that has a significantly better Pass Offense Rating (POF) (at least 1 point higher). Throw in a few secondary conditions and you have a killer trend that was profitable yet again in 2009, with a record of 10-7 ATS |
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| NFL Betting Trend #56 | |
| Primary Condition: | Sunday Night Game |
| ATS Since 1994: | 27-4 |
| ATS in 2008: | 1-0 |
| ATS in 2009: | 3-1 |
| 2010 Projection: | 55.7% ATS |
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With so much focus on the Monday night game, one can forget that the prime-time Sunday night game also offers the possibility for profitable trend analysis. One such trend involves teams playing on SN that are prone to giving up rushing yards in large chunks. Teams that have a Big Rush Yardage Percentage Against (BRY%A) of > 50%, meaning, more than half of the rushing yards they surrender occurs on runs of 10+ yards, have actually been an excellent wager on Sunday night over the years, especially when they are coming off a game where BRY%A was at least 10% > than BRY%F. Could these teams be working extra-hard on their run-defense in the days leading up to this game to avoid prime-time embarrassment? Who knows, but, one thing is for sure: this trend has made a killing since 1994. |
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| NFL Betting Trend #35 | |
| Primary Condition: | Current Over/Under of < 35 points. |
| ATS Since 1994: | 73-17 |
| ATS in 2008: | 1-1 |
| ATS in 2009: | 2-0 |
| 2010 Projection: | 57.1% ATS |
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In case you haven't figured it out yet — a game's Over/Under is a valuable tool for those of us trying to beat the point-spread. In this case, its games that have an extremely low Over/Under (< 35 points) that are of interest and more specifically: the team that has the higher Rushing Play % For (RP%F) going in. Add in one more condition that the team that rushes the ball more often also has a season fumble differential (FUMD) of <= +0.5 and you have a potent trend that has been a winner 16-straight years. |
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