Innovative NFL Point Spread Handicapping Exploring both Math and Mind.

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Handicapper Bio and Website Background

14 seasons and counting.

Its human nature: people like to know a little bit about the company or person who is asking for their money before they open their wallet. It's every customer's right and expectation in the information age.

You are also probably not looking for a traditional handicapping 'service' so much as a trustworthy source of good information that can make you a better handicapper in the long-run.

If either of these statements strikes a chord, then I invite you to read on.

Who am I? I do not claim to be an MIT professor nor am I a 'Vegas Insider' that lives in the state of Nevada. I am simply a middle-aged Canadian male who has taken his fervent interest in North American football and a love of statistical analysis and combined them to create my own personal site/blog that covers the ins-and-outs of handicapping the NFL line using situational trends.

I currently reside in the Southern Ontario region with my wife and 3 children and balance a growing online business with the demands of family life and a full-time job.

What is the main purpose of this site? I would be a liar if I said that this site did not exist to make at-least some sort of a profit, but, at the same time, I also hope to advance the science of handicapping the NFL using trend analysis—an area that has been scrutinized and studied for over a hundred years in the financial markets, yet, has not caught on in the realm of sports 'betting markets'.

Unfortunately, this style of handicapping has been largely abused and hijacked by scam artists and amateurs peddling useless 'team trends' over the past 10-15 years and has suffered from a lack of serious analysis as a result.

Why the name? The very name of the site, 'Armchair Analysis', pays homage to the fact that 13 years ago, when I started out on my own personal quest to become a better handicapper, I was probably no more adept at picking spread-winners than the next guy. My methods consisted of simply using whatever stats were found in the newspaper sports section along with taking heed of the gut-feelings I had on each game.

My methods have improved drastically over the years of course, but never-the-less, I still try and forego the hype and self-promotion that is so prevalent in this industry by maintaining a humble and down-to-earth site with a name that tries to convey that I do not take myself too seriously, despite my success.

How did this all begin? Things all began back in 1994, when I started a spread-based football pool at the mid-sized company I was working for at the time. I was surprised at the level of interest that was expressed in the initial year and over 30 people signed up. Unfortunately, I finished near the bottom of the standings and it was this embarrassing result that ultimately planted the seeds for the site that you now see in 2007.

During the following off-season, I went to work looking for a method to better evaluate true team strength. Influenced by a 1992 book on the topic of sports handicapping by Bert Randolph Sugar, I focused my efforts on studying one key stat in particular: Yards-per-Pass Play average.

By combining YPP in an algorithm with another key stat: Points-per-Pass Play average, I came up with a way of measuring a team's efficiency with regards to their ability to move the ball down the field compared with the actual number of points scored.

Team Momentum Indicators (TMI's for short) were the resulting output of this algorithm and they were the basis for my selections from 1995-1999. I still use them today, in a number of my most important and extensive situational trends.

It wasn't until 1999 that I went online with some of my findings and in the 8 years since, the site has evolved into its current format with a focus on roughly 100 different situational trends that have had winning records over the past 14 years.

What does this site offer? Currently, all regular-season selections (usually around 200 per year) are provided absolutely free on the Office Pool Picks page to those that are interested. Since 2004, these selections are 56% ATS.

There is the option of signing up for a subscription for those that want access to my high-percentage plays (picks with a 58%+ Confidence percentage) and the details and logic behind the situational trends that I employ. This valuable information is provided at the reasonable rate of less than $100US for the entire season. For more information, please consult the Subscription page.

In Summary: Whatever your interest level, I hope that my site can offer you at-least some insight into the wide-ranging field of NFL spread-handicapping.

For a better idea of the trends that I analyze each season and powerful handicapping tips with no strings attached, please visit the Articles page and do not hesitate to send me an email via the Contact Form if you have any questions or inquiries regarding this site.

Sincerely,
Dennis