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Simple NFL Betting Systems#40: Favourites of >= 14 Pts coming off a big win ATS. |
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April 17th, 2008 For those of you who like to bet on the perennial Super-Bowl contenders: here is a fairly straight-forward NFL betting system that involves favourites of at least 14 points that has been 20-0 ATS over the past 14 seasons and 3-0 ATS last year alone. Spreads of at least 2 TD's are actually not as common as you might think: Since 1994, there have only been 93 games involving a line of 14+ points and favourites have produced a rather mundane record of 46-47 ATS during this time period. Thanks in part to the early dominance of New England last season, 2007 saw the highest number of 2-touchdown spreads in the past 15 years: a total of 13 games had a line of at least 14 points. After getting burned in the first half of the season, lines makers caught up with the Patriots and at seasons end, big favs were only 6-7 against the number. Now, before I go any further, it's important to mention that trends or systems involving a smaller number of games, such as this one, tend to be less reliable in predicting future outcomes than a trend that involves say, 100-200 games. Additionally, systems that typically play on only a portion of teams in the league (in this case, only 34.4% of teams have been involved at one time or another) are also more susceptible to a down-turn in fortunes. Have said this, a small system such as this one that involves a limited number of related conditions can be a useful tool in handicapping a game where more substantial trends or other significant betting information is lacking. In other words: I don't recommend making a selection based solely on a trend of this nature, but, if you need to make a selection for whatever reason (i.e., office pool), a 54-56% chance of success (as this angle essentially provides) is better than nothing. Now that I have raised the caution flag on the usage of systems in this category, let's return to exploring the logic behind this particular trend. Betting on large favourites is a habit one would normally associate with the vast number of 'squares' that place wagers each week and as their 46-47 ATS record reveals, it is also a sure way to lose money over the long-haul. When we look at big favourites that are coming of a significant ATS victory; however, we suddenly have a very profitable situation on our hands. Since 1994, favourites of at least 14 points that are coming off a 14 point or greater ATS victory are a solid 21-7 ATS (75.0%) netting a profit of $1,330.00 when wagering $110.00 to win back $100.00 on each event. In contrast, big favourites that failed to cover the spread in their past game or covered by less than a field goal, happen to be a dismal 16-28 ATS in their next game—with a 2-5 record ATS last season. The lesson here is fairly clear: play-on big favourites only so long as they are still far-exceeding the expectations of the betting public. As soon as they fail to cover the spread with authority, dump them and move on to other opportunities. This pattern certainly applied to the Pat's last season as it has to many other dominant teams over the past decade-and-a-half. There is actually one final secondary condition that I like to add to this system and that is, to eliminate games where the opponent of our big favourite has a better record outside their division than with-in. Considering that games with a 2-touchdown spread are more likely to be a non-divisional match-up than divisional, an opponent that has a superior record in just this situation can pose problems for the favoured team. NFL standings listed in the newspaper or on the Internet will not normally specify a team's 'non-divisional' record, so, the easiest way to determine if this last condition applies is to compare overall winning percentage with divisional winning percentage. A higher overall winning percentage obviously indicates that this team plays its best football against non-divisional opponents. Once this last condition is added, this system's record improves to 20-0 ATS since 1994. Here are all the details, including the top 4 teams that have found themselves in this situation over the past 14 years. (Notes: ASMR stands for Average Spread Margin Rating. A positive rating indicates a trend that is stronger than average versus the line, negative—weaker than average. TDIS% is the percentage of teams in the league that have been involved in this situation at one time or another. WT% is the percentage of teams that are .500 or better and SPR is the average spread for teams in this situation. For more details, please consult Page 13 of my 2008 NFL Game Sheets Guide.) System #40 Summary Primary Conditions (Building Blocks) 1) Favourite of >= 14 points. 2) ATS Margin >= 14 in Last Game. Secondary Conditions (Tighteners) 1) Exclude Opponent with an Overall WP >= Divisional WP (DWP). System Stats ASMR: +1.3 Home%: 80.0 Dog%: 0.0 TDIS%: 34.4 WT%: 95.0 SPR: -15.4 Top Teams: SF(4); NE(3); STL(3); BAL(2) System Record Overall (Since '94): 20-0 ATS 2007 Season: 3-0 ATS 2006 Season: 0-0 ATS 2005 Season: 2-0 ATS 2004 Season: 0-0 ATS Last 3 Results. Pick in Brackets 2007 WK7—NE 49 MIA 28 (NE -16) W 2007 WK5—NE 34 CLE 17 (NE -16.5) W 2007 WK3—NE 38 BUF 7 (NE -16.5) W Be sure to re-visit this page during the 2008 Season for weekly updates on how this betting system is performing! |
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