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Situational Trend Spotlight#51: Teams coming off a Clutch Win (CW). |
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November 9th, 2007 It should come as no surprise to even the most novice of pro-football bettors that the outcome of a team's last game can have a significant effect on how they fare versus the number in their next contest. One particular area of interest in this regard concerns teams coming off a Clutch Win. A 'Clutch' win—by my definition—is when a team tallies the final score of a game, in either the 4th quarter or overtime, moving them from a tied or losing position, into a winning one. Teams coming off this so-called 'gut-check' win are slightly worse-than-average versus the spread in the following week (400-418 ATS since '94) which in itself, is not a profitable situation when wagering at 10/11 odds. The Clutch Win situation only becomes interesting when we add a second Primary condition that specifies that the current opponent of the team in question has a worse-than-average Starting Field Position Average Against (SFPA). The league average for SFPA is usually around 30 and in this case, we are interested in teams that have at-least a 31 average or higher. SFPA basically tells us where a team's defense normally starts out on the field. Squads with a high SFPA usually have a higher-than-average number of interceptions going against them in their own half of the field and also rank near the bottom of the league in terms of how well they defend on kick-off and punt returns. Teams with a high SFPA are also more likely to be near the bottom of the league in the ATS Wins department, but, unlike teams that falter against the number due to an ineffective offense or defense, teams that have been hurt by INT's and long run-backs on opposing returns are much more likely to bounce back in future games and provide the astute bettor with considerable line-value. Combining this line-value with a team in position for a possible let-down (due to the Clutch win factor) gives us a formidable negative situation that is 52-110 (32.1%) ATS since 1994 and 3-8 ATS so far in 2007! Rounding out this situation are 2 Secondary conditions which weed out opponents with a weak rush defense (evidenced by a high 1st Quarter Rush % against) and eliminates games in the post-season or Week 17. When it comes to situational handicapping, it's always best to work with trends that have as few conditions as possible and this one is very effective with only 4. Here are all the details: (Notes: ASMR stands for Average Spread Margin Rating. A positive rating indicates a trend that is stronger than average versus the line, negative—weaker than average. TDIS% is the percentage of teams in the league that have been involved in this situation at one time or another. WT% is the percentage of teams that are .500 or better and SPR is the average spread for teams in this situation. For more details, please consult Page 13 of my 2007 NFL Game Sheets Guide.) Situational Trend #51 Summary (Last Updated: Jan 15th, 2008) Primary Conditions (Building Blocks) 1) Last Game Clutch Win (CW). 2) Opponent Starting Field Position Average Against (SFPA) > 31. Secondary Conditions (Tighteners) 1) Opponent 1st Quarter Rush% Against (Q1R%A) <= 50. 2) Before Week 17. Situation Stats ASMR: +0.5 Home%: 44.8 Dog%: 51.2 TDIS%: 100.0 WT%: 71.2 SPR: -0.43 Top Teams: CHI(7); CLE(7); DAL(7); NYG(6) Situation Records Overall (Since '01): 27-92 ATS 2007 Season: 9-14 ATS 2006 Season: 2-9 ATS 2005 Season: 5-12 ATS 2004 Season: 2-7 ATS Last 3 Results. Pick in Brackets. 2007 WK16—WAS 32 MIN 21 (MIN -6.5) L 2007 WK16—IND 38 HOU 15 (IND -7) W 2007 WK15—PHI 10 DAL 6 (DAL -10) L Be sure to re-visit this page during the 2008 Season for weekly updates on how this trend is performing! |
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