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Situational Trend Spotlight#6: Teams in an Away Sandwich (AS). |
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February 7th, 2008 Anyone who has been handicapping the NFL spread using situational methods for any length of time is probably familiar with the term 'sandwich' (as it applies to sports betting). For those that are thinking more along the lines of sliced ham or turkey: in the realm of NFL handicapping, it refers to a situation that looks at a window of 3 consecutive games where the 'middle' game is surrounded, or sandwiched by a different circumstance that is present in the other 2 games. Here is a fairly simple example of a 'sandwich' at work: It involves teams that are facing a non-divisional opponent after facing a divisional opponent with a SU WP > .500 in their past game AND also have a divisional opponent with a SU WP > .500 coming up in their next game. Teams in this situation happen to be a dismal 42-64 ATS since 1994. This sounds great on the surface, but, there are potential problems with this kind of analysis. Situations and past trends built on sandwiches are, as a rule, fairly simplistic in nature. Most are based on scheduling factors that do not require an overly complicated database or an especially sharp handicapper to find. As a result, many situations of this type have been overused and grasped onto by the general bettor over the past 15-20 years, thereby reducing their effectiveness and profitability. The let-down situation I briefly described earlier concerning teams facing a Non-Divisional opponent is a good example: After going 32-57 ATS between 1994 and 2003, teams in this spot have turned things around in the past 4 years with a 10-7 record against the spread. All is not lost, however. Situational trends that involve sandwiches can still be profitable. The caveat is that we simply have to become a little more advanced as to what other conditions are included, so that the circumstances surrounding the situation are not something that the majority of bettors placing wagers each week will be aware of. The particular trend I would like to look at for this article involves teams in an Away Sandwich which includes all teams playing their current game on the road, after a home game and preceding another home game. By itself, this situation has not been profitable over the past 14 years (605-644 ATS for the team involved). But, when we add 2 other conditions to the mix, we have ourselves a very powerful trend that has been a consistent winner for 14 straight years. If we go on to specify that the team in question must have an above average Pass Offense Rating (POF > 0), we suddenly have a situation that is 247-315 (44.0%) ATS since 1994, producing a profit of $4,330.00 (wagering $110 to win back $100 on each game while betting against this team, of course). Not bad for a basic trend that is built on only 2 conditions. For those who are not familiar with my calculation of POF: this is a rating built on yards-per-play stats that are adjusted for the strength of all opponents faced. As an example, if Atlanta were to average 5.8 yards-per-pass on offense versus a group of opponents that normally gives up an average of 6.3 yards-per-pass, their POF would effectively be -0.50 (6.3 - 5.8). It should be noted that plays such as Quarterback kneel-downs and spiked balls are not included in the calculation of pass ratings and extremely long pass plays are capped at 60 yards. The last Primary condition (i.e., building block) that needs to be added to this situation specifies that the current opponent for teams involved must have a below average Passing Game Rating (PG < 0) (a Passing Game rating is simply POF + PDE). Based on the 3 conditions so far, teams are a brutal 117-193 (37.7%) ATS since 1994 for a profit of $6,430.00 at 10/11 odds. So, why has this particular trend been so effective? As with many of the situations I utilize, it's probably down to a combination of factors. In this case, we have a team with a good Pass Offense facing an opponent with a poor overall passing game, on the road—a troika of factors that create both a letdown situation for our focus team, combined with the fact that amateur bettors normally overvalue teams with a decent passing attack facing an opponent that has both a weak pass offense and defense. Add it all up and you get a situation covering over 300 games where the team in question fails to cover the spread just under 2 out of every 3 tries. In addition to the 3 primary conditions involved, there are also 3 secondary conditions that round out this situation. Teams that happen to be coming off a BYE WEEK are eliminated (this is very common for trends involving a 'sandwich') and teams that surrender an extremely high percentage of sacks per-pass-play (> 10%) are also not included. Finally, teams in this situation must have a Rush Defense Rating that is no more than 1 point higher than their current opponent. This particular situation is one of the most extensive out of the 100+ that I track each season. It has a TDIS% (Trend Distribution Percentage) of 100%; meaning, every single team in the NFL has been involved at some point or another since 1994. A high TDIS% adds to a trends stability and the chances are very good that this situation will perform well, once again, in 2008. Here are all the details. (Notes: ASMR stands for Average Spread Margin Rating. A positive rating indicates a trend that is stronger than average versus the line, negative—weaker than average. TDIS% is the percentage of teams in the league that have been involved in this situation at one time or another. WT% is the percentage of teams that are .500 or better and SPR is the average spread for teams in this situation. For more details, please consult Page 13 of my 2007 NFL Game Sheets Guide.) Situational Trend #6 Summary Primary Conditions (Building Blocks) 1) Team is in an Away Sandwich (AS). 2) Team has an Above Average Pass Offense Rating (POF). 3) Current Opponent has a Below Average Passing Game Rating (POF + PDE). Secondary Conditions (Tighteners) 1) Team Rush Defense Rating - Opponent RDE <= 1. 2) Exclude Sack Percentage Against (SK%A) > 10. 3) Team is not coming off a BYE WEEK. Situation Stats ASMR: +0.8 Home%: 0.0 Dog%: 37.5 TDIS%: 100.0 WT%: 73.2 SPR: -1.84 Top Teams: GB(16); DAL(15); NO(15); MIN(13) Situation Records Overall (Since '94): 77-173 ATS 2007 Season: 4-12 ATS 2006 Season: 6-13 ATS 2005 Season: 12-15 ATS 2004 Season: 6-15 ATS Last 3 Results. Pick in Brackets. 2007 WK16—SF 21 TB 19 (TB -6) L 2007 WK16—CIN 19 CLE 14 (CLE -3) L 2007 WK15—CAR 13 SEA 10 (SEA -7) L Be sure to re-visit this page during the 2008 Season for weekly updates on how this trend is performing! |
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