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Simple NFL Betting Systems#65 & #90: SOV and Revenge in the Playoffs. |
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February 15th, 2008 Seeing as we are less than 2 weeks removed from one of the more exciting post-seasons to come along in recent memory (congrats to the NY Giants), it seems like an opportune time to discuss a couple of different playoff systems that both found success in 2007, one with a 5-1 ATS record and the other with a perfect 3-0 mark against the number. Handicapping the post-season effectively requires a different outlook than the regular season and while some of the trends that I use between September and December are valid in January as well, most of my post-season selections are based on roughly 6 different trends that are specific to the playoffs only, all of which have found great success in the past 14 years. The 2 that will be the focus of this article are fairly simple in nature and with a small amount of work on your part, they can become valuable handicapping tools for you in the 2008 Playoffs. The first one involves an interesting stat that I have found to be very effective in predicting spread winners in the playoffs: Strength of Victory (SOV). SOV is essentially the 'half-brother' of Strength of Schedule (SOS). The only difference, is that, instead of totaling up the won/loss records of all opponents faced, we are only going to look at the won/loss record for the opponents that a team has defeated. This calculation will obviously take less effort for lousy teams (Miami's SOV of 0.31 from 2007 doesn't take long to calculate) and more time for some of the better teams in the league. A good example from the 2007 season is Kansas City and their SOV of 0.47, which was achieved by defeating 4 opponents (Minnesota, San Diego, Cincinnati and Oakland) that finished the regular season with a combined record of 30-34. The league average for SOV is usually only around 0.400 and Kansas City did manage to tie for second in this category, with Atlanta and New England (one of the few statistical area's where the '07 Chiefs were near the top of the league). So, what does SOV have to do with successfully picking winners in the playoffs? It's simple really—since 1994, playoff teams that have a lower SOV than their opponent, are 88-57 (60.7%) ATS for a tidy profit of $2,530.00 ($110 wagered to win back $100). There is only one more significant condition that needs to be added to this trend and that is: the team with the lower SOV must also have had a higher straight-up winning percentage in the previous season (LS WP). Adding this 3rd and final condition creates a 40-6 ATS situation that was 5-1 in the '07 playoffs and has never been below the .500 mark versus the number in the past 14 years. Interestingly enough, this situation has a fairly even split between playing on home teams and road teams as well as favourites and underdogs. Almost two-thirds of teams in the league have been involved since 1994. The next Playoff system I would like to look at (#90) also relies on only 2 different conditions (in addition to the specification of looking at only Playoff games, of course). This trend has been almost perfect since 1994: 21-1 ATS, with it's only loss coming in the 2003 post-season, when it went 5-1. It's success is based on teams that are looking for 'revenge' as a result of a SU LOSS in the last game played against their current opponent, either in the current season, or one of the previous 2 seasons. I should further clarify that the team in this situation must have also been a favourite in this previous game, making it an upset win for their current opponent. Just a brief word about past meetings: When looking at these games, I basically break them into 2 different classifications: LM2 and LM4. This particular trend uses the LM2 classification (the last meeting occurred in the current, or last 2 seasons) while the LM4 type extends further back to include a previous meeting as far back as 4 seasons ago. Depending on the exact circumstance that is being addressed from a previous game, an LM4 classification will sometimes be more effective while in other cases, a game needs to be more recent and I therefore use the LM2 type. I do analyze a total of 20 different stats from past meetings such as rushing and passing yardage, penalty yardage, time of possession and turnovers, etc. But, it's usually the final score itself that provides the most insight into who will cover in a current game. Past meetings that end up as an 'upset' or that finish with a 4th Quarter Comeback or a Clutch Win are exactly the kind of games that leave one team or the other looking forward to the next meeting where things can be 'put right'. And what better time of the year to exact some revenge than under the glare and spotlight of the NFL Playoffs? This is shown by the fact that since 1994, Playoff teams that lost SU as a favourite versus their current opponent in their last meeting (LM2 classification) are outstanding versus the line: 32-10 (76.2%) ATS for a profit of $2,100 (wagering $110 to win back $100 on each game). For those that want to take things one step further: if we add the condition that this teams season over/under average (OV%) is at least 50% (meaning, they have gone over the number in at least half their games), the record for this situation becomes 21-1 (95.5%) ATS since 1994. Here are all the details on both of these systems. (Notes: ASMR stands for Average Spread Margin Rating. A positive rating indicates a trend that is stronger than average versus the line, negative—weaker than average. TDIS% is the percentage of teams in the league that have been involved in this situation at one time or another. WT% is the percentage of teams that are .500 or better and SPR is the average spread for teams in this situation. For more details, please consult Page 13 of my 2007 NFL Game Sheets Guide.) System #65 Summary Primary Conditions (Building Blocks) 1) Playoff Game. 2) Opponent has a higher season Strength of Victory (SOV). 3) Last Seasons Winning Percentage (LS WP) greater than Opponent's LS WP. Secondary Conditions (Tighteners) 1) None. System Stats ASMR: -0.2 Home%: 53.2 Dog%: 38.3 TDIS%: 62.5 WT%: 100.0 SPR: -1.22 Top Teams: SEA(6); NE(5); PHI(5); DEN(4) System Records Overall (Since '94): 40-6 ATS 2007 Season: 5-1 ATS 2006 Season: 3-1 ATS 2005 Season: 4-1 ATS 2004 Season: 4-0 ATS Last 3 Results. Pick in Brackets. 2007 WK20—NE 21 SD 12 (SD +14) W 2007 WK19—SD 28 IND 24 (SD +9) W 2007 WK19—GB 42 SEA 20 (SEA +7) L System #90 Summary Primary Conditions (Building Blocks) 1) Playoff Game. 2) Straight-up FAV loss versus this Opponent in Current or L2 Seasons (LM2). Secondary Conditions (Tighteners) 1) Season Over% (OV%) >= 50 System Stats ASMR: -1.8 Home%: 34.8 Dog%: 52.2 TDIS%: 43.8 WT%: 100.0 SPR: -0.33 Top Teams: DEN(3); PIT(3); IND(2); JAC(2) System Records Overall (Since '94): 21-1 ATS 2007 Season: 3-0 ATS 2006 Season: 1-0 ATS 2005 Season: 1-0 ATS 2004 Season: 1-0 ATS Last 3 Results. Pick in Brackets. 2007 WK20—NYG 23 GB 20 (NYG +7.5) W 2007 WK19—NE 31 JAC 20 (JAC +13) W 2007 WK18—JAC 31 PIT 29 (PIT +2.5) W Be sure to re-visit this page during the 2008 Season for weekly updates on how this trend is performing! |
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