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NFL Game SheetsAccept no substitutes. |
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Sample '08 Game: Baltimore vs Cleveland (232KB)  Whether you are simply looking for solid NFL selections versus the spread each week. Or, advanced team stats and trends that can complement your own methods: NFL Game Sheets from Armchair Analysis.com will provide you with the wagering-orientated analysis that you need to succeed versus the line. Covering 484 different variables per game, 15 different charts, and over 125 winning NFL trends—spread across 6 information-packed pages—it's an Excel spreadsheet on steroids that analyzes team skill levels and the associated perceptions of team strength held by the typical bettor, from every direction imaginable. The bottom line is this: The point spread can be beaten with regularity and this one-of-a-kind handicapping package will show you how. Here is what you will find contained within its pages: Page 1: Team Stats As mentioned, 484 different variables are analyzed including: key stats from recent games, the past season, and recent meetings with the upcoming opponent. 
Numerous percentages and ratings look at team strategy and skill levels according to: Red Zone situations; down; pass receivers; direction of runs; time left and quarter; score; 3rd and short; 3rd and long, along with many, many others.Team penalties are broken down into 6 distinct categories and coverage is also provided for every aspect of special teams play. The different defenders that typically make tackles, and in what situations, are also tracked and one cannot forget my proprietary, TMI's (Team Momentum Indicators), which can be described as an advanced 'Power Number' for the new millennium—much quicker to adjust to recent game-play and constantly changing team momentum. This stat is simply not provided anywhere else. Page 2: Team Rosters 
No handicapping package would be complete with-out a detailed assessment of team rosters, with an eye towards evaluating current injury levels and their impact on a team's chances in the upcoming week.Starters and back-up players for both teams are listed along with age, weight, height and years experience. Average attributes for complete defensive/offensive units are provided as well. This page also displays specific player ailments as well as injury status from the latest league reports. Rounding things out is my own variable: C%, which gives handicappers an exact idea of each player's season-to-date contribution to their team. Page 3: Game Logs Studying the ups and downs all teams experience during the course of the season through the analysis of 'game logs' is an important aspect of spread handicapping and Page 3 helps to accomplish this task by clearly laying out game history right from Week 1. 
42 different variables are covered, including: key game stats such as time-of-possession and yards gained in each contest; season-to-date measurements of team momentum and rushing/passing strengths, as well as an up-to-date assessment of both strength-of-victory (SOV) and strength-of-schedule (SOS) for the current season.Perhaps most importantly, the amount and severity of injuries that teams were experiencing prior to each game—for 7 distinct positions and units—are also listed, allowing bettors to better establish who was hurting and when, as well as revealing significant changes, both up and down, to team injury levels from game-to-game. Page 4: Key Match-Ups 
More than a few of my customers have mentioned in the past that they found Page 1 to be a bit overwhelming in terms of the number of stats it provides and that it would also be nice to see how well a team ranks in relation to the rest of the league, at the same time as showing the stat itself.My answer to this was to create the Key Match-Ups page, which takes 193 variables from Page 1 and arranges them into the following 13 sections: Situations Passing Stats Rushing Stats Penalties Player Age Height Weight Experience Player Speed Player Strength Special Teams The total number of categories in which teams rank higher than their opponent are tabulated for 12 of the 13 sections and areas where one side has a distinct advantage over the other are clearly highlighted: green for an advantage and red for a disadvantage. For handicappers looking to quickly assess how teams match up with each other in almost 200 different categories—this is the page for you. Page 5: Charts Spending the week leading up to a game staring at endless tables of data is enough to put even the most devoted NFL handicapper off the task at hand. 
Sometimes, data is simply better served when presented as a chart or graph and there are 15 examples of this on Page 5.Using data taken from the Game Logs page, the Charts page displays season-to-date trends for some of the most important indicators of team play that have been proven to predict spread outcomes. Charts focusing on: Rush Ratings (ROF vs RDE); Pass Ratings (POF vs PDE); Team Momentum Indicators (TMI's); SU Winning Percentage vs Pythagorean Winning Percentage (WP vs PWP); Average Spread vs Straight-Up Margin (SPR vs SUM), are all presented, along with an analysis of Strength-of-Schedule (SOS), Strength-of-Victory (SOV) and season-long injury patterns. It's Wall-Street style Technical Analysis that looks at spreads instead of stock prices, SPR vs SUM instead of P/E ratio. This is basically 'un-charted' territory for me (pardon the pun) and I plan on fully incorporating results from this page with my Situational methods (see Page 6) over the next few seasons. Page 6: Situations Anyone can search a database of NFL games and find what would appear to be significant results against the spread. But, it's the rare service that can weed through thousands of possible trends to find the ones that are truly predictive. 
You've all seen the 'team trends' that have flooded the Internet over the past 10+ years and other, equally worthless 'angles' such as: 'Play on all underdogs of > 5 points on the road against a divisional opponent', etc. etc.The amount of useless information currently available online serves to cloud the fact that trend/situational handicapping can be a very effective tool, when the right statistics and situations are taken into consideration. And this is where my research comes in: 10 years of studying hundreds of different stats and many other situational factors has allowed me to isolate dozens of league-wide trends that do consistently beat the spread year-after-year—just don't expect me to use the term: '5000-star lock' anytime soon...... So, there you have it: 'NFL Game Sheets' in a nutshell. If you want to dig even deeper and explore all the stats contained in these pages one-by-one, please click on the link below!
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