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Weekly NFL Trend Summaries

Complex trends. Simple presentation.

Subscribers are provided with a weekly summary of active trends in both HTML (shown below) and PDF format for easy printing. All significant situations for each game are listed along with their all-time and current season records ATS. The resulting Confidence percentage for each contest is also shown.

For those interested in digging deeper into the science behind my particular style of trend analysis—NFL Game Sheets break-down how each Confidence percentage is calculated and also provide an expanded tool-box of stats related to each individual trend. This information can be found on Page 3 of each PDF game-file.

Situational Analysis Summary - Week 10, 2007
Atlanta Falcons (2-6) at Carolina Panthers (4-4) -4
Sunday, November 11th, 2007, Game Time: 01:00 PM EST
ATSPFPASPRTMIINTDFUMDROFRDEPOFPDE
ATL5-314.421.14.6-3.790.50.50.08-0.02-1.02-0.87
CAR4-417.120.10.8-2.430.130.50.30.1-1.120.11

This table represents a small fraction of the season stats available for each team.
For many more, please consult the Game Sheet.

SIT# - Description
    S94    
   CS    
#96 - Carolina Panthers are in a negative situation for teams with a WP <= 0.5 in a HOME SANDWICH facing an OP without an AAVG RDE rating (OP PA > PA).
34-109
4-7
Situations For — Atlanta 1 Carolina 0
Confidence Meter
Atlanta Falcons +4Carolina Panthers -4
                                                  
Confidence Meter Total — Atlanta 57%

This percentage is based on the specific trends present in this game along with a number of other factors. For more details, please consult the Game Sheet.


Buffalo Bills (4-4) -3 at Miami Dolphins (0-8)
Sunday, November 11th, 2007, Game Time: 01:00 PM EST
ATSPFPASPRTMIINTDFUMDROFRDEPOFPDE
BUF6-216.319.56.31.850.630.25-0.56-0.39-0.55-0.15
MIA2-420.830.55.1-6.49-0.87-0.120.47-0.43-0.3-0.73

This table represents a small fraction of the season stats available for each team.
For many more, please consult the Game Sheet.

SIT# - Description
    S94    
   CS    
#79 - Buffalo Bills are in a positive situation for teams with a SEAS SPR average > 6 where TMI + SPR - OP TMI > 3 (CRNT OU > 34, RZC%A <= OP RZC%A).
95-29
5-0
Situations For — Buffalo 1 Miami 0
Confidence Meter
Buffalo Bills -3Miami Dolphins +3
                                                  
Confidence Meter Total — Buffalo 57%

This percentage is based on the specific trends present in this game along with a number of other factors. For more details, please consult the Game Sheet.


Cleveland Browns (5-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2) -10
Sunday, November 11th, 2007, Game Time: 01:00 PM EST
ATSPFPASPRTMIINTDFUMDROFRDEPOFPDE
CLE6-228.429.13.33.03-0.370.130.23-0.491.34-0.64
PIT6-227.812.3-6.54.9900.750.310.130.531.61

This table represents a small fraction of the season stats available for each team.
For many more, please consult the Game Sheet.

SIT# - Description
    S94    
   CS    
#73 - Cleveland Browns are in a positive situation for teams with a BAVG PASSING GAME last season, coming off a 4Q COMEBACK in their LG, currently facing an OP with a SEAS TOD > 0.5.
47-8
2-0
#13 - Pittsburgh Steelers are in a negative situation for teams with an AAVG PDE and DEFENSE, coming off a game in which RAF - RAA was > 20 (CRNT not MN and not off BYE WEEK).
49-142
1-5
Situations For — Cleveland 2 Pittsburgh 0
Confidence Meter
Cleveland Browns +10Pittsburgh Steelers -10
                                                  
Confidence Meter Total — Cleveland 61% (Best Bet)

This percentage is based on the specific trends present in this game along with a number of other factors. For more details, please consult the Game Sheet.


Denver Broncos (3-5) at Kansas City Chiefs (4-4) -3
Sunday, November 11th, 2007, Game Time: 01:00 PM EST
ATSPFPASPRTMIINTDFUMDROFRDEPOFPDE
DEN1-715.828.4-0.6-6.34-0.37-0.620.08-0.960.75-0.95
KC4-315.518.33.66.790.130.13-1.320.3-0.880.26

This table represents a small fraction of the season stats available for each team.
For many more, please consult the Game Sheet.

SIT# - Description
    S94    
   CS    
#36 - Denver Broncos are in a positive situation for teams in a DIV SANDWICH before WEEK 16 with an INTD >= -0.5 (ATSWP <= OP ATSWP and next not BYE WEEK).
91-20
5-2
#47 - Denver Broncos are in a positive situation for teams with a BRY%F > 50 and PBEPA <= 1.0 (SRP%F - OP SRP%F >= -2.5).
129-48
11-2
#72 - Denver Broncos are in a positive situation for teams with an ATSWP < 0.3 between WEEK 7 and WEEK 11, coming off a SU LOSS (PYA >= 175, LG not MN).
81-15
8-3
Situations For — Denver 3 Kansas City 0
Confidence Meter
Denver Broncos +3Kansas City Chiefs -3
                                                  
Confidence Meter Total — Denver 67% (Best Bet)

This percentage is based on the specific trends present in this game along with a number of other factors. For more details, please consult the Game Sheet.


Jacksonville Jaguars (5-3) at Tennessee Titans (6-2) -4
Sunday, November 11th, 2007, Game Time: 01:00 PM EST
ATSPFPASPRTMIINTDFUMDROFRDEPOFPDE
JAC4-419.418.9-1.5-0.850.38-0.250.4-0.380.32-0.39
TEN5-220.615.50.19.690.63-0.37-0.20.8-1.21.26

This table represents a small fraction of the season stats available for each team.
For many more, please consult the Game Sheet.

SIT# - Description
    S94    
   CS    
#36 - Jacksonville Jaguars are in a positive situation for teams in a DIV SANDWICH before WEEK 16 with an INTD >= -0.5 (ATSWP <= OP ATSWP and next not BYE WEEK).
91-20
5-2
#101 - Jacksonville Jaguars are in a positive situation for teams that do not have an AAVG PASSING GAME with a LPC%F at least 10 points higher then their OP's LPC%A (LG BPYA - BPYF <= 50).
58-12
7-2
Situations For — Jacksonville 2 Tennessee 0
Confidence Meter
Jacksonville Jaguars +4Tennessee Titans -4
                                                  
Confidence Meter Total — Jacksonville 62% (Best Bet)

This percentage is based on the specific trends present in this game along with a number of other factors. For more details, please consult the Game Sheet.


Minnesota Vikings (3-5) at Green Bay Packers (7-1) -6
Sunday, November 11th, 2007, Game Time: 01:00 PM EST
ATSPFPASPRTMIINTDFUMDROFRDEPOFPDE
MIN3-320.819.33.39.220.250.51.971.29-1.12-0.12
GB6-124.317.81000.13-0.760.721.250.03

This table represents a small fraction of the season stats available for each team.
For many more, please consult the Game Sheet.

SIT# - Description
    S94    
   CS    
#70 - Minnesota Vikings are in a positive situation for teams with a TMI AD between 2.5 and 9.5 after WEEK 4 and before WEEK 17 (LG not OT WIN, OP SEAS PA <= SEAS PA).
255-114
17-9
#88 - Minnesota Vikings are in a negative situation for teams with a 3DRF rating > 1 and a 2DPA AD < -1.5 (ASM >= -8).
21-77
4-14
Situations For — Minnesota 1 Green Bay 1
Confidence Meter
Minnesota Vikings +6Green Bay Packers -6
                                                  
Confidence Meter Total — Minnesota 51%

This percentage is based on the specific trends present in this game along with a number of other factors. For more details, please consult the Game Sheet.


Philadelphia Eagles (3-5) at Washington Redskins (5-3) -3
Sunday, November 11th, 2007, Game Time: 01:00 PM EST
ATSPFPASPRTMIINTDFUMDROFRDEPOFPDE
PHI3-519.519.4-3.2-3.40.25-0.370.680.56-0.13-0.27
WAS2-419200.530.13-0.25-0.140.49-0.091.41

This table represents a small fraction of the season stats available for each team.
For many more, please consult the Game Sheet.

SIT# - Description
    S94    
   CS    
#4 - Philadelphia Eagles are in a positive situation for AWAY teams with an AFG < 31 (SFPF - OP SFPF <= 5).
73-18
11-5
#13 - Washington Redskins are in a negative situation for teams with an AAVG PDE and DEFENSE, coming off a game in which RAF - RAA was > 20 (CRNT not MN and not off BYE WEEK).
49-142
1-5
#24 - Washington Redskins are in a negative situation for teams before WEEK 17 with a PDE AD > 1 and an AAVG POF rating last season, currently facing an OP with an AAVG ROF rating (CRNT not MN).
53-138
4-10
#51 - Washington Redskins are in a negative situation for teams before WEEK 17 coming off a CLUTCH WIN, currently facing an Opponent with an SFPA > 31.
27-92
9-14
Situations For — Philadelphia 4 Washington 0
Confidence Meter
Philadelphia Eagles +3Washington Redskins -3
                                                  
Confidence Meter Total — Philadelphia 68% (Best Bet)

This percentage is based on the specific trends present in this game along with a number of other factors. For more details, please consult the Game Sheet.


Common Trend Abbreviations

1DP 1st Down Pass Rating 1DR% 1st Down Rush %Plays

1DR 1st Down Rush Rating 1QP 1st Quarter Points

2DP 2nd Down Pass Rating 2DR% 2nd Down Rush %Plays

2DR 2nd Down Rush Rating 3DP 3rd Down Pass Rating

3DR% 3rd Down Rush %Plays 3DR 3rd Down Rush Rating

4QP 4th Quarter Points AAVG Above Average AD Advantage

AFG Average Field Goal Distance AG Against AGE Age AL Away Losses

ASL Average Sack Loss Yards ASM Average Spread Margin

ATS Against the Spread ATSL ATS Loss ATSM ATS Margin ATSS ATS Streak

ATSW ATS Win ATSWP ATS Winning % ATT(S) Attempt(s) AVG Average

AW Away Win's AWP Away Winning % BAVG Below Average BB Back-to-Back

BPY% Big Pass Yardage % BPY Big Pass (20+) Yards

BRY% Big Rush Yardage % BRY Big Rush (10+) Yards

C% Player Contribution % CG% % of Clutch Games CL Clutch Losses

CL% % of Clutch Losses COMP Completions CONV Conversion CRNT Current

CS Current Season CW Clutch Win's CW% % of Clutch Wins

CWP Clutch Winning % DB Defensive Backs

DBR% Defensive Back Run Tackle % DBS% Defensive Back %Sacks

DBT% Defensive Back %Tackles DIV Divisional DL Defensive Line

DL% Deep Left Pass %Attempts DL Deep Left Pass Rating

DLP(O-A) Defensive Line Penalty DM% Deep Middle Pass %Attempts

DM Deep Middle Pass Rating DMP(O-A) Dumb Penalty DOG Underdog

DR% Deep Right Pass %Attempts DR Deep Right Pass Rating

DSP(O-A) Defensive Secondary Penalty DVL Division Losses

DVP Division Place DVW Division Win's DWP Divisional Winning %

E1Q End of 1st Quarter EXP Experience FAV Favourite FD First Downs

FG Field Goal FG% Field Goal Success Rate % FGPG Field Goals per Game

FSP(O-A) False Start Penalty FUM Fumbles FUMD Fumble Differential

GB Games Behind GPY Gross Punt Yardage Average HGT Height HL Home Losses

HW Home Win's HWP Home Winning % I20% Punt Inside 20 %

INJ RTG Current Injury Rating INJ TOT Injury Total (Average)

INJ TOT LW Injury Total Last Week INJ TOT TW Injury Total This Week

INT% Interception % INT Interceptions INTD Interception Differential

KRY Kick-Off Ret Yardage L2G Last 2 Games L3S Last 3 Seasons

LB Linebacker LBR% Linebacker Run Tackle % LBS% Linebacker %Sacks

LBT% Linebacker %Tackles LC% Late-Close %Plays

LCP Late-Close Pass Rating LCR Late-Close Rush Rating

LE% Left End %Attempts LE Left End Rush Rating LG Last Game

LG OP WP Last Game - Opponent WP LG% Left Guard %Attempts

LG Left Guard Rush Rating LG2 Game before LG

LG2 OP WP Last Game 2 - Opponent WP LM2 Last Meeting - CS/ LS

LM4 Last Meeting - CS/L3S LNR% Lineman Run Tackle %

LNT% Lineman %Tackles LOP Last Opponent LOSA Last Opponent Season Avg

LPC% Long Pass %Completions LS Last Season LSC Last Score

LT% Left Tackle %Attempts LT Left Tackle Rush Rating LW Last Week

MD% Middle Rush %Attempts MD Middle Rush Rating MN Monday Night Game

MPC% Medium Pass %Completions N2G Next 2 Games NDIV Non-Divisional

NG Next Game NG OP WP Next Game - Opponent WP NG2 Game after NG

NH% No Huddle %Plays NPYF Net Punt Yardage Average NSH No Show Game

OHP(O-A) Offensive Holding Penalty OL Offensive Line OP Opponent

OT Overtime OU Over Under OV% % of Over Games P Points PA Passing Attempts

PB Pro-Bowl PBEP(O-A) Play Book Execution Penalty PBP Play-by-Play

PC% Pass Completion % PC Pass Completions PDE Pass Defense Rating

PEY Penalty Yardage PL Playoffs POF Pass Offense Rating

PP Points per Pass PR Points per Rush PPG Points per Game

PRY Punt Return Yardage PS% Passing Situation %Plays

PSP Passing Situation Pass Rating PSR% Passing Situation Rush Play %

PSR Passing Situation Rush Rating PSW Pre-Season Wins PTS Points

PWP Pythagorean Winning % PY Passing Yards Q1P 1ST Quarter Pass Rating

Q1R% 1st Quarter Rush %Plays Q1R 1ST Quarter Rush Rating

QB Quarterback QBR% Quarterback Rush %Attempts

QBR Quarterback Rush Rating RA Rushing Attempts RB Running Back

RBP% Running Back Pass %Attempts RBP Running Back Pass Rating

RDE Rush Defense Rating RE% Right End %Attempts

RE Right End Rush Rating REC Receivers (TE & WR)

RG% Right Guard %Attempts RG Right Guard Rush Rating

ROF Rush Offense Rating RP% Rushing Play %

RS% Rushing Situation %Plays RSP Rushing Situation Pass Rating

RSR% Rushing Situation Rush Play % RSR Rushing Situation Rush Rating

RT% Right Tackle %Attempts RT Right Tackle Rush Rating

RTD% Punt/Kick-Off Return TD % RTG Rating RY Rushing Yards

RZC% Red Zone Conversion % RZP Red Zone Pass Rating

RZR Red Zone Rush Rating S01 Since 2001 S3C% Short YDG 3rd Down Conv%

S4Q Start of 4Q S94 Since 1994 SA Season Average SAT Saturday Game

SB SuperBowl SBL Super-Bowl Loser SBW Super-Bowl Winner SCHD Schedule

SEAS Season SEAS OU Season Over Under Average

SEAS P Season Points per Game Average SEAS SPR Season Spread Average

SFP Starting Field Position Avg SG% Shot-gun %Plays SG Shot-gun Rating

SINJ RTG Season Avg Injury Rating SK% Sack % SK Sacks

SL% Short Left Pass %Attempts SL Short Left Pass Rating

SM% Short Middle Pass %Attempts SM Short Middle Pass Rating

SN Sunday Night Game SOS Strength of Schedule SOV Strength of Victory

SPC% Short Pass %Completions SPP Successful Passing Play SPR Spread

SR% Short Right Pass %Attempts SR Short Right Pass Rating

SRP Successful Rushing Play STAT Injury Status (P/Q/D/O/IR)

STF% Stuffed Run %Plays SU Straight-Up SUC Successful Play

SUL Straight-Up Loss SUM Straight-Up Margin SUN Sunday Afternoon Game

SUS Straight-Up Streak SUW Straight-Up Win TB% Punt Touchback %

TD Touchdown TE% Tight End %Attempts TE Tight End Pass Rating

THU Thursday Game TMI Team Momentum Indicator TO Turn Overs

TOD Turn Over Differential TOP Time of Possession TP Total Plays

TSP Total Successful Plays TY Total Yards WGT Weight

WP SU Winning Percentage WR Wide Receiver WR1% Wide Receiver 1-2 %Attempts

WR1 Wide Receiver 1-2 Pass Rating WR3% Wide Receiver 3-5 %Attempts

WR3 Wide Receiver 3-5 Pass Rating YDG Yardage YDS Yards YR Year


Note: Many abbreviations will also have an 'F' or 'A' at the end to signify For/Against. As an example: Red Zone Pass Rating (RZP) will either be listed as RZPF or RZPA.
For more information, please consult the 2008 NFL Game Sheets Guide.


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