Weekly NFL Trend Summaries
Complex trends. Simple presentation.
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Premium Package subscribers are provided with a weekly summary of active trends in both HTML (shown below) and PDF format  for easy printing.
All significant situations for each game are listed along with their all-time and current season records ATS. The resulting Confidence percentage for each contest is also shown.
For those interested in digging deeper into the science behind my particular style of trend analysis—NFL Game Reports break-down how each Confidence percentage is calculated and also provide an expanded tool-box of stats related to each individual trend. This information can be found on Page 6 of each PDF game-file and also comes as part of a Premium Subscription.
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| TAMPA BAY (5-3) -9 at KANSAS CITY (1-6) | | Sunday, November 2nd, 2008, Game Time: 12:00 PM EST |
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| ATS | PF | PA | ASM | TMI | INTD | FUMD | ROF | RDE | POF | PDE | | TB | 4-3 | 21.3 | 15.0 | +5.1 | -1.1 | 0.50 | -0.12 | -0.10 | 0.48 | -0.51 | 1.52 | | KC | 3-4 | 14.1 | 27.6 | -4.9 | -10.4 | -0.29 | 0.86 | 0.05 | -1.54 | -1.92 | -1.33 | |
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| SIT# - Team: Description | S94 | CS | #23 - TAMPA BAY: Play Ag Teams with an Offensive Holding Penalty Against average (OHPA) > opponent's OHPA and a Pass Defense Rating (PDE) >= 0 in their last 3 games.
[Game is between Week 3 and 17.] | 177-297 | 25-36 | #24 - TAMPA BAY: Play Ag teams with a Pass Defense Rating Advantage (PDE AD) > 1 and an above average Pass Offense Rating (POF) last season.
[Week < 17 and current opponent has an above average Rush Offense Rating (ROF).] | 64-151 | 5-10 | #30 - TAMPA BAY: Play Ag teams with a Strength-of-Schedule% (SOS) > 0.55 and Victory% (SOV) >= 0.35, facing an opponent with a lower Pass Defense Rating (PDE).
[Current Over/Under <= 39.] | 30-104 | 2-2 | #123 - TAMPA BAY: Play Ag teams with an above average Wide Receiver 3-5 Rating Against (WR3A) and a TD via-Turnover % For (TDT%F) that is 5 pts higher than their TDT%A.
[Opponent's Strength-of-Schedule is >= 0.450.] | 59-152 | 10-18 | #105 - KANSAS CITY: Play On teams with a Linebacker Sack % For (LBS%F) > 30, facing an opponent with a Turn-over Differential (TOD) at least 0.25 pts higher than theirs in the L3 games.
[Interception Differential (INTD) > than their Fumble Differential (FUMD) over the L3 games] | 102-25 | 14-3 | #119 - KANSAS CITY: Play On teams with a Home Win % (HWP) < 0.500 facing an opponent with a Season Turn-over Differential (TOD) > 0.
[Current Oppoent's TOD last season is greater than their TOD this season.] | 245-137 | 13-7 | | #121 - KANSAS CITY: Play On teams coming off Back-to-Back SU losses with a Season Starting Field Position For average (SFPF) < 29. | 141-76 | 23-17 | | Situations For — TAMPA BAY 0 KANSAS CITY 7 |
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| Confidence Meter | | TAMPA BAY -9 | | KANSAS CITY +9 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Confidence Meter Total — KANSAS CITY 74% |
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| BALTIMORE (4-3) at CLEVELAND (3-4) -1 | | Sunday, November 2nd, 2008, Game Time: 12:00 PM EST |
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| ATS | PF | PA | ASM | TMI | INTD | FUMD | ROF | RDE | POF | PDE | | BAL | 5-1 | 19.1 | 15.7 | +4.2 | +2.3 | 0.29 | -0.86 | -0.25 | 1.22 | -0.33 | 0.34 | | CLE | 5-2 | 16.4 | 17.6 | +4.4 | +5.0 | 0.43 | 0.43 | 0.07 | -0.45 | -0.46 | -0.64 | |
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| SIT# - Team: Description | S94 | CS | #105 - BALTIMORE: Play On teams with a Linebacker Sack % For (LBS%F) > 30, facing an opponent with a Turn-over Differential (TOD) at least 0.25 pts higher than theirs in the L3 games.
[Interception Differential (INTD) > than their Fumble Differential (FUMD) over the L3 games] | 102-25 | 14-3 | #7 - CLEVELAND: Play On favourites of less than 7 points with a Linebacker Sack % For (LBS%F) > 40.
[Opponent's Strength-of-Victory (SOV) is not more than .200 pts higher than this teams SOV.] | 102-50 | 15-17 | | Situations For — BALTIMORE 1 CLEVELAND 1 |
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| Confidence Meter | | BALTIMORE +1 | | CLEVELAND -1 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Confidence Meter Total — BALTIMORE 55% |
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| NEW YORK(A) (4-3) at BUFFALO (5-2) -5.5 | | Sunday, November 2nd, 2008, Game Time: 12:00 PM EST |
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| ATS | PF | PA | ASM | TMI | INTD | FUMD | ROF | RDE | POF | PDE | | NYJ | 3-4 | 26.0 | 24.3 | -1.4 | +0.1 | -1.00 | 0.14 | 0.22 | 0.88 | -1.00 | -0.06 | | BUF | 4-3 | 23.6 | 20.4 | +1.1 | -2.5 | 0.00 | -0.29 | -0.46 | 0.20 | -0.06 | 0.33 | |
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| SIT# - Team: Description | S94 | CS | #51 - NEW YORK(A): Play Ag teams coming off a Clutch Win, currently facing an opponent with a Starting Field Position Against average (SFPA) of > 31.
[Game is before Week 17.] | 26-85 | 4-2 | #114 - NEW YORK(A): Play On teams with a 2nd Down Rush Against Advantage Rating (2DRA AD ) > 0.75 that allowed their last opponent to score 3 or more points over their season avg.
[Not a Dog of 7 or more points in their last game.] | 158-69 | 17-11 | #125 - NEW YORK(A): Play On teams with a 1st Quarter Rush Against Advantage (Q1RA AD) > 1.25 and a Successful Rushing Play % Against (SRP%A) > 40.
[Time-of-Possession (TOPF) was > 23 minutes in the last game.] | 184-88 | 22-10 | #23 - BUFFALO: Play Ag Teams with an Offensive Holding Penalty Against average (OHPA) > opponent's OHPA and a Pass Defense Rating (PDE) >= 0 in their last 3 games.
[Game is between Week 3 and 17.] | 177-297 | 25-36 | #48 - BUFFALO: Play On teams that gave up < 50 Kick-off Return Yards and < 15 Punt Return Yards in their last game.
[their last 2 opponent's have had a SU Win % <= 0.500.] | 98-30 | 5-2 | #64 - BUFFALO: Play Ag Favs of >= 5 pts facing an opponent with a SU Win% > 0.600 in their next game.
[Current game is between Week 3 and 10 and is not a Divisional Sandwich.] | 54-127 | 9-8 | #109 - BUFFALO: Play Ag Favs (or Dogs of < 7 pts) that have a higher Offensive Holding Penalty Against average (OHPA) > than opponent.
[Game is between Week 4 and 15 and team Gross Punt Yardage For average (GPYF) is not more than 7 yards above NPYF.] | 107-216 | 20-22 | | Situations For — NEW YORK(A) 5 BUFFALO 2 |
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| Confidence Meter | | NEW YORK(A) +5.5 | | BUFFALO -5.5 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Confidence Meter Total — NEW YORK(A) 60% |
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| ARIZONA (4-3) -3 at ST. LOUIS (2-5) | | Sunday, November 2nd, 2008, Game Time: 12:00 PM EST |
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| ATS | PF | PA | ASM | TMI | INTD | FUMD | ROF | RDE | POF | PDE | | ARI | 4-3 | 28.6 | 24.4 | +4.6 | +1.7 | -0.43 | 0.14 | -0.43 | 0.32 | 1.32 | -0.20 | | STL | 3-4 | 16.0 | 28.7 | -3.6 | +7.2 | 0.29 | 0.29 | 0.12 | -0.58 | -0.85 | -1.08 | |
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| SIT# - Team: Description | S94 | CS | #23 - ST. LOUIS: Play Ag Teams with an Offensive Holding Penalty Against average (OHPA) > opponent's OHPA and a Pass Defense Rating (PDE) >= 0 in their last 3 games.
[Game is between Week 3 and 17.] | 177-297 | 25-36 | #36 - ST. LOUIS: Play On teams with a Passing First Down % For (PFD%F) < 57.5 and an Infraction First Down % (IFD%) < 8 (both For and Against).
[Opponent's IFD%A is >= 8%.] | 160-71 | 13-9 | #39 - ST. LOUIS: Play On teams after with an above average Rush Offense Rating (ROF) rating coming off a Clutch Loss.
[Current opponent is from the same division and game is after Week 3.] | 93-28 | 5-4 | | Situations For — ARIZONA 1 ST. LOUIS 2 |
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| Confidence Meter | | ARIZONA -3 | | ST. LOUIS +3 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Confidence Meter Total — ST. LOUIS 54% |
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